What do prediction markets say about "Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026?"?

According to Predictagon, the current probability for "Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026?" is 55%.

What are the current odds for "Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026?"?

The Yes probability is currently 55%, meaning markets assign a 55% chance of this outcome occurring. The No probability is 45%. Trading volume is $0.

What do prediction markets say about "Crude Oil Price Surge"?

According to Predictagon, the current probability for "Crude Oil Price Surge" is 60%. This market resolves on 2/17/2027.

What are the current odds for "Crude Oil Price Surge"?

The Yes probability is currently 60%, meaning markets assign a 60% chance of this outcome occurring. The No probability is 40%.

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Market Data

Markets

Stock futures surge, oil prices fall 18% as Trump announces two-week cease-fire with Iran

Q: What are the current odds for "Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026?"?

The Yes probability is currently 30%, meaning markets assign a 30% chance of this outcome occurring. The No probability is 70%. Trading volume is $0.

MarketWatchApril 7, 2026 at 11:47 PMBullish1 min read

Key Takeaways

1Stock futures rose following Trump's cease-fire announcement.
2Oil prices plunged 18% on reduced Middle East conflict fears.
3The cease-fire is set for two weeks, signaling potential de-escalation.

Market Pulse

DIRECT HIT

Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026?

Predictagon

Yes 30%No 70%

Vol: $0

View on Predictagon

Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026?

Predictagon

Yes 55%No 45%

Vol: $0

View on Predictagon

Crude Oil Price Surge

Predictagon

Yes 60%No 40%

Ends: 2/17/2027

View on Predictagon

See all predictions on Predictagon

Global stock futures have jumped significantly, buoyed by news of a potential de-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as President Trump announced a two-week cease-fire. This development has also triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, reflecting reduced geopolitical risk premium. Investors will be closely watching for confirmation of the cease-fire's specifics and any further diplomatic movements to gauge its lasting impact on market stability and energy prices.

Stock futures surge, oil prices fall 18% as Trump announces two-week cease-fire with Iran

Key Takeaways

Market Pulse

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