Venezuela Oil Won’t Top Others in Region for Years, Rystad Says

According to the latest analysis from Rystad Energy, Venezuela's oil production is unlikely to reclaim its historical dominance in South America for at least a decade, lagging significantly behind regional leaders like Brazil and Guyana. Despite the US recently easing sanctions through General License 44, the structural decay of Venezuela's energy infrastructure—resulting from years of underinvestment, corruption, and political instability—creates a formidable barrier to rapid scaling. Currently producing around 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), Venezuela projects a far slower growth trajectory compared to Brazil’s robust pre-salt output and Guyana’s meteoric rise fueled by ExxonMobil’s offshore discoveries. For investors, this suggests that the 'Venezuela wildcard' is less of a threat to global supply-demand balances than previously feared. While Chevron (CVX) continues its limited operations under specific licenses, the broader sector remains cautious due to the risk of 'snap-back' sanctions ahead of the Venezuelan elections. The forward-looking implication is a continued geopolitical premium on Latin American oil, with capital likely favoring the stable regulatory environments of Georgetown and Brasília over the high-risk rehabilitation of the Orinoco Belt.